pmoon 🌙 lowest-temperature motoru (PAPER · v10 filtreleri · 8 şehir)
Settle: 2 · isabet 1/2 (50%) · P&L -9.94$ · ROI -85.0% · açık 10 ($92)
σ rekortmenleri: london 0.58 · tokyo 0.62 — min-sıcaklık, max'tan çok daha tahmin edilebilir. Tarama: her 1 dk, T-0+T-1, METAR obs-üst-sınır.
Açık lowest bahisleri
| giriş | şehir | tarih | bucket | sınıf | z | obs-min | fiyat | edge | tutar |
|---|
| 22:32 | tokyo | 2026-08-07 | 25°C | exact | 3.01 | — | 0.96 | +0.046 | $10.0 |
| 21:42 | london | 2026-08-07 | 13°C | exact | 3.4 | — | 0.97 | +0.045 | $10.0 |
| 19:13 | miami | 2026-08-07 | 74-75°F | exact | 2.09 | — | 0.93 | +0.046 | $10.0 |
| 15:37 | hong-kong | 2026-08-07 | 28°C | exact | 2.13 | — | 0.93 | +0.043 | $10.0 |
| 14:04 | nyc | 2026-08-07 | 72-73°F | exact | 2.41 | — | 0.95 | +0.038 | $10.0 |
| 11:24 | tokyo | 2026-08-07 | 24°C | exact | 4.04 | — | 0.97 | +0.039 | $10.0 |
| 07:49 | hong-kong | 2026-08-07 | 29°C | exact | 3.28 | — | 0.97 | +0.047 | $10.0 |
| 14:55 | miami | 2026-08-06 | 72-73°F | exact | 2.74 | — | 0.969 | +0.031 | $10.0 |
| 09:40 | miami | 2026-08-06 | 74-75°F | exact | 2.13 | — | 0.93 | +0.050 | $10.0 |
| 08:18 | london | 2026-08-06 | 13°C | exact | 3.09 | — | 0.96 | +0.047 | $2.1 |
Settle geçmişi (tahmin vs gerçek + hata dahil)
| tarih | şehir | bucket | sınıf | tahmin | gerçek | hata | giriş | P&L |
|---|
| 2026-08-05 | nyc | 74-75°F | obs | 66.6 | 72.5 | -5.9 | 0.967 | +0.06 |
| 2026-08-05 | nyc | 72-73°F | obs | 67.5 | 72.5 | -5.0 | 0.93 | -10.00 |
🔭 Yeni-market keşifleri
| bulundu | tip | şehir | aktif market |
|---|
| henüz yeni keşif yok — gözcü günde 2× tarıyor (baz: 51 highest + 8 lowest) |
🔍 Son tarama teşhisi · 22:45:09 (95 aday · 0 geçti)
| şehir | bucket | z | model | mktYES | edge | sonuç |
|---|
| london | 10°C or below ·T0 | 7.89 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 11°C ·T0 | 6.23 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 12°C ·T0 | 4.57 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.0009 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 16°C ·T0 | 2.08 | 0.104 | 0.001 | -0.1032 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 17°C ·T0 | 3.74 | 0.002 | 0.001 | -0.0008 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 18°C ·T0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 19°C ·T0 | 7.06 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 20°C or higher ·T0 | 8.72 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 10°C or below | 8.39 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 11°C | 6.73 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 12°C | 5.06 | 0.0 | 0.007 | 0.007 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 14°C | 1.74 | 0.176 | — | — | z<2 |
| london | 17°C | 3.24 | 0.008 | 0.01 | 0.0021 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 18°C | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 19°C | 6.56 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 20°C or higher | 8.22 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 9°C or below | 2.97 | 0.005 | 0.004 | -0.0009 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 10°C | 2.2 | 0.03 | 0.023 | -0.0068 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 11°C | 1.43 | 0.112 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 15°C | 1.63 | 0.084 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 16°C | 2.4 | 0.019 | 0.017 | -0.0021 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 17°C | 3.17 | 0.002 | 0.008 | 0.0055 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 18°C | 3.94 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.0008 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 19°C or higher | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 22°C or below | 7.89 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 23°C | 6.26 | 0.0 | 0.003 | 0.003 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 28°C | 1.87 | 0.141 | — | — | z<2 |
| tokyo | 29°C | 3.5 | 0.004 | 0.001 | -0.0026 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 30°C | 5.12 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 31°C | 6.75 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 32°C or higher | 8.38 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 23°C or below | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 24°C | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.0009 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 25°C | 3.21 | 0.003 | 0.001 | -0.0023 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 26°C | 2.21 | 0.04 | 0.001 | -0.0388 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 27°C | 1.22 | 0.193 | — | — | z<2 |
| shanghai | 30°C | 1.77 | 0.09 | — | — | z<2 |
| shanghai | 31°C | 2.76 | 0.011 | 0.001 | -0.0102 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 32°C | 3.76 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.0005 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 33°C or higher | 4.75 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 21°C or below ·T0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 22°C ·T0 | 3.51 | 0.001 | 0.001 | -0.0002 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 23°C ·T0 | 2.52 | 0.02 | 0.001 | -0.019 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 24°C ·T0 | 1.53 | 0.128 | — | — | z<2 |
| hong-kong | 27°C ·T0 | 1.43 | 0.147 | — | — | z<2 |
| hong-kong | 28°C ·T0 | 2.42 | 0.025 | 0.001 | -0.0241 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 29°C ·T0 | 3.41 | 0.002 | 0.001 | -0.0007 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 30°C ·T0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 31°C or higher ·T0 | 5.39 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 21°C or below | 4.96 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 22°C | 3.97 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.0008 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 23°C | 2.98 | 0.006 | 0.001 | -0.0052 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 24°C | 1.99 | 0.06 | — | — | z<2 |
| hong-kong | 30°C | 3.94 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.0007 | edge<0.03 |
| hong-kong | 31°C or higher | 4.93 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| seoul | 23°C or below | 4.74 | 0.0 | 0.007 | 0.007 | edge<0.03 |
| seoul | 24°C | 3.85 | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.0077 | edge<0.03 |
| seoul | 25°C | 2.96 | 0.006 | 0.011 | 0.0054 | edge<0.03 |
| seoul | 26°C | 2.07 | 0.046 | 0.02 | -0.0259 | edge<0.03 |
| seoul | 27°C | 1.18 | 0.178 | — | — | z<2 |
arşiv — kripto: 21 işlem -26$ (KAPALI) · eski hava-agresif: 7 açık settle bekliyor / 7 settle