pmoon 🌙 lowest-temperature motoru (PAPER · v10 filtreleri · 8 şehir)
Settle: 2 · isabet 1/2 (50%) · P&L -9.94$ · ROI -85.0% · açık 3 ($22)
σ rekortmenleri: london 0.58 · tokyo 0.62 — min-sıcaklık, max'tan çok daha tahmin edilebilir. Tarama: her 1 dk, T-0+T-1, METAR obs-üst-sınır.
Açık lowest bahisleri
| giriş | şehir | tarih | bucket | sınıf | z | obs-min | fiyat | edge | tutar |
|---|
| 14:55 | miami | 2026-08-06 | 72-73°F | exact | 2.74 | — | 0.969 | +0.031 | $10.0 |
| 09:40 | miami | 2026-08-06 | 74-75°F | exact | 2.13 | — | 0.93 | +0.050 | $10.0 |
| 08:18 | london | 2026-08-06 | 13°C | exact | 3.09 | — | 0.96 | +0.047 | $2.1 |
Settle geçmişi (tahmin vs gerçek + hata dahil)
| tarih | şehir | bucket | sınıf | tahmin | gerçek | hata | giriş | P&L |
|---|
| 2026-08-05 | nyc | 74-75°F | obs | 66.6 | 72.5 | -5.9 | 0.967 | +0.06 |
| 2026-08-05 | nyc | 72-73°F | obs | 67.5 | 72.5 | -5.0 | 0.93 | -10.00 |
🔭 Yeni-market keşifleri
| bulundu | tip | şehir | aktif market |
|---|
| henüz yeni keşif yok — gözcü günde 2× tarıyor (baz: 51 highest + 8 lowest) |
🔍 Son tarama teşhisi · 06:41:11 (135 aday · 0 geçti)
| şehir | bucket | z | model | mktYES | edge | sonuç |
|---|
| london | 10°C or below ·T0 | 8.22 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 11°C ·T0 | 6.56 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 12°C ·T0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.007 | 0.007 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 16°C ·T0 | 1.75 | 0.175 | 0.001 | -0.1739 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 17°C ·T0 | 3.41 | 0.005 | 0.001 | -0.004 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 18°C ·T0 | 5.07 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 19°C ·T0 | 6.73 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 20°C or higher ·T0 | 8.39 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 10°C or below | 9.11 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 11°C | 7.45 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 12°C | 5.78 | 0.0 | 0.061 | 0.061 | edge>0.05 |
| london | 13°C | 4.12 | 0.0 | 0.13 | 0.1295 | edge>0.05 |
| london | 14°C | 2.46 | 0.051 | 0.41 | 0.3591 | edge>0.05 |
| london | 17°C | 2.52 | 0.045 | 0.011 | -0.034 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 18°C | 4.18 | 0.0 | 0.005 | 0.0046 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 19°C | 5.84 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 | edge<0.03 |
| london | 20°C or higher | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 12°C or below ·T0 | 2.76 | 0.009 | 0.004 | -0.0047 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 13°C ·T0 | 2.0 | 0.045 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 14°C ·T0 | 1.23 | 0.146 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 17°C ·T0 | 1.07 | 0.173 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 18°C ·T0 | 1.84 | 0.06 | 0.001 | -0.0586 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 19°C ·T0 | 2.61 | 0.012 | 0.001 | -0.0107 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 20°C ·T0 | 3.37 | 0.001 | 0.001 | -0.0003 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 21°C ·T0 | 4.14 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.0009 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 22°C or higher ·T0 | 4.91 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 9°C or below | 3.27 | 0.002 | 0.007 | 0.0051 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 10°C | 2.51 | 0.015 | 0.027 | 0.012 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 11°C | 1.74 | 0.071 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 12°C | 0.97 | 0.19 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 15°C | 1.33 | 0.129 | — | — | z<2 |
| paris | 16°C | 2.09 | 0.037 | 0.009 | -0.0279 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 17°C | 2.86 | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.003 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 18°C | 3.63 | 0.001 | 0.009 | 0.0084 | edge<0.03 |
| paris | 19°C or higher | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.008 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 20°C or below ·T0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 21°C ·T0 | 4.88 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 22°C ·T0 | 3.25 | 0.007 | 0.01 | 0.0027 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 26°C ·T0 | 3.25 | 0.007 | 0.001 | -0.0063 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 27°C ·T0 | 4.88 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 28°C ·T0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 29°C ·T0 | 8.13 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 30°C or higher ·T0 | 9.76 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 22°C or below | 7.13 | 0.0 | 0.003 | 0.003 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 23°C | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.003 | 0.003 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 24°C | 3.87 | 0.001 | 0.04 | 0.0389 | fill yok |
| tokyo | 25°C | 2.25 | 0.075 | 0.04 | -0.0345 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 28°C | 2.63 | 0.034 | 0.05 | 0.0157 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 29°C | 4.26 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.0017 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 30°C | 5.88 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 31°C | 7.51 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 | edge<0.03 |
| tokyo | 32°C or higher | 9.13 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 22°C or below ·T0 | 6.52 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 23°C ·T0 | 5.53 | 0.0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 24°C ·T0 | 4.53 | 0.0 | 0.003 | 0.003 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 25°C ·T0 | 3.54 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.0038 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 26°C ·T0 | 2.54 | 0.019 | 0.009 | -0.0102 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 27°C ·T0 | 1.55 | 0.126 | — | — | z<2 |
| shanghai | 30°C ·T0 | 1.44 | 0.147 | 0.002 | -0.1454 | edge<0.03 |
| shanghai | 31°C ·T0 | 2.43 | 0.025 | 0.001 | -0.0239 | edge<0.03 |
arşiv — kripto: 21 işlem -26$ (KAPALI) · eski hava-agresif: 11 açık settle bekliyor / 3 settle